Weather Update: Tracking Cyclone Montha and the Latest Rainfall Forecast (October 25, 2025)
Good morning! This post provides the latest analysis of the weather systems impacting South India as of October 25, 2025. Please note that this is a personal weather estimation; for official weather announcements, always follow the Indian Meteorological Department and government announcements.
The Evolving Montha System in the Bay of Bengal
The low-pressure area that formed in the South Andaman regions has successfully intensified. Yesterday, it transitioned into a well-marked low-pressure area, and today, it has strengthened into a Deep Depression. The meteorological department is expected to officially announce this later today.
Key Details on the System's Current Position: The system is currently located at Latitude 10.6 and Longitude 89.5 East. Its central pressure has dropped to 996 hPa, and its maximum wind speed is calculated at 25 knots.
Projected Path: Model Guidance There has been some variation among numerical weather models regarding the exact path of this system, referred to as the Montha Cyclone:
- ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts): This model suggests that the system will mostly avoid the North Tamil Nadu coast. It is predicted to turn Northeast (kava) approximately 150 to 200 kilometers away from the coast. ECMWF predominantly points toward a path aiming for the region between Machilipatnam and Kakinada. While it may become a cyclone, it is anticipated to weaken to a severe deep depression upon landfall, traveling through inland Andhra Pradesh and Telangana before heading towards the northeast via a western trough around October 27.
- GFS (Global Forecast System): GFS guidance suggests a slight movement further west, occasionally bringing the system within 150 km of Chennai before turning towards Papikonda, Kakinada, or sometimes even Visakhapatnam. However, GFS models show a lack of consensus, whereas the ECMWF model provides a narrower path with higher consensus.
Overall, based on the consensus of various models, the region between Machilipatnam and Kakinada remains the most likely target area.
Impact on Tamil Nadu Based on current analysis, there is a 90% likelihood that the Montha Cyclone will have no direct impact on Tamil Nadu, including Chennai. In terms of wind impact, the state may experience surface winds of only about 20 to 35 km/h. Any rainfall in North Coastal Tamil Nadu and Chennai will depend entirely on how far west the system moves. We must wait and watch the system's movement over the next 24 hours.
Update on the Arabian Sea Depression
Meanwhile, the depression active in the Arabian Sea has continued its movement, initially west-northwest, then east, and is now moving towards Maharashtra in a northeast direction. It is currently predicted to circle within the Central Arabian Sea for approximately another week before eventually weakening near Gujarat or Maharashtra.
Recent Rainfall (Last 24 Hours)
Tamil Nadu saw rainfall reported across several districts in the last 24 hours, particularly in Kanniyakumari and Madurai.
Significant Rainfall Amounts (in mm):
- Kanniyakumari District: Thadaraikkonam (53), Arumana (52), Mayilar (47.2), Paraliyar (43.6), N. Manalodai (42).
- Madurai District: Theenkarai (41.6), Thanichalam (35.6), Alanganallur (33.2), Kallanthiri (28), Panaikkudi (27.2).
- Sivaganga District: Mampatti (42.4), Arumana Siruvayal (37.6), Veliyoor (33.6), Thilakkottai (29.6).
- Tiruchirappalli: Ikkara Kosaikurichi (32.4).
- Tirunelveli District: Thiruvanbalangapuram (21.6), Thirukurunkudi (16), Gangaigondan (14.8).
- North Chennai also recorded 11 mm of rain.
Rainfall Forecast for the Next 24 Hours
Widespread rain is unlikely in Tamil Nadu today.
- Tamil Nadu: Light to moderate rain is expected in certain areas. This includes parts of Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Villupuram, Pondicherry, Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Dindigul, Madurai, and Ramanathapuram. Other areas, including the western, central, and southern districts (such as Erode, Tiruppur, Coimbatore, Tenkasi, Tirunelveli, and Kanniyakumari) may see light to moderate rain in isolated spots.
- Kerala: Moderate to heavy rainfall is widespread across many districts, including Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Idukki, Kottayam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Kozhikode, and Kannur.
- Karnataka: Moderate to heavy rain is expected in Bengaluru, Tumakuru, Kodagu, Dakshina Kannada, Udupi, Shimoga, Uttara Kannada, Bidar, and Gulbarga. Other districts may see light rain.
- Andhra Pradesh: Moderate to heavy rain is forecast for Kurnool, Nandyal, Kadapa, Chittoor, Tirupati, Nellore, and Kavali. Light to moderate rain is likely in Central and North Coastal Andhra. Rainfall is expected to increase further over the next 48 hours.
- Telangana: Widespread rain is likely today. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected in districts like Hyderabad, Nalgonda, Rangareddy, Mahbubnagar, Nizamabad, and Warangal.
- Maharashtra/Madhya Pradesh: Due to the Arabian Sea depression, Central Maharashtra, Vidarbha, and Madhya Pradesh districts have a chance for moderate to heavy rainfall today.
For continuous, real-time updates regarding any changes to the weather models, please follow the live announcements today.
Based on the information provided in the sources regarding the weather systems and forecasts, here are potential trending tags:
Trending Weather Tags
- #MonthaCyclone
- #Monthaபுயல்
- #WeatherUpdate
- #வானிலைஅப்டேட்
- #DeepDepression
- #BayofBengal
- #Machilipatnam (மச்சிலிப்பட்டினம்)
- #Kakinada (காக்கிநாடா)
- #AndhraPradeshWeather
- #TamilNaduRain
- #ChennaiWeather (சென்னை வானிலை)
- #TelanganaWeather
- #ArabianSea (அரபிக்கடல்)
- #October252025
- #ECMWF
- #GFS
- #KanyakumariRain
- #KeralaRain
- #MaharashtraWeather
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