Cyclone Alert: Deep Depression to Intensify into Cyclone Montha – Rain Warnings Issued for South and West India (October 26, 2025)
Good morning! This weather update, based on the forecast for October 26, 2025, brings crucial information regarding a developing weather system in the Bay of Bengal.
Please note: This information is derived from an individual weather assessment by MAS Rainman; always follow announcements from the Indian Meteorological Department and government authorities for accurate forecasts and information.
Current Status: Deep Depression Intensifies
The major focus of today's forecast is the weather system located in the Bay of Bengal, east of the Andaman Islands. This system, initially a depression, has strengthened into a Deep Depression (or Intense Deep Depression).
Satellite imagery confirms the system's robust structure, showing dense rain clouds surrounding it. As of 5:30 AM (real-time observation), the system is situated near 10.5 latitude and 87.5 east longitude, with maximum wind speeds estimated at approximately 30 knots.
Forecast Track and Cyclone Montha
The system is currently moving in a westerly direction. However, by this evening, it is expected to shift its movement to a west-northwest direction.
Crucially, there are high chances for the system to intensify further:
- It is highly likely to strengthen into a Cyclone (Cyclone Montha) tonight or tomorrow.
- The system has strong convergence surrounding it, and while divergence is currently low, it is expected to increase, which suggests further strengthening is probable.
Most weather models (including Ensembles, GFS, and CCMF) predict that the track will primarily target the Central Andhra regions. There is a slight divergence among models, with some suggesting it might move slightly west before heading west-northwest.
If the system moves further west, the chances of rain for coastal Tamil Nadu increase. Overall, this system is expected to bring rain primarily to areas bordering North Tamil Nadu.
Rainfall Forecast for the Next 24 Hours
The following regions should prepare for significant rainfall, particularly over the next 24 hours:
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana:
- Coastal Andhra (Nellore, Prakasam, Tirupati): Moderate to heavy rain.
- North Coastal Andhra (Konaseema, Kakinada, Anakapalli): Moderate rain.
- Interior Rayalaseema: Light to moderate rain.
- Visakhapatnam and Central Krishna regions: Isolated light rain.
- Telangana (including Hyderabad): Widespread light to moderate rain.
- Note: The intensity of rain is expected to increase in Andhra's coastal districts starting tomorrow.
Tamil Nadu and Puducherry:
- Moderate to Heavy Rain: Expected in Nilgiris, Valparai, and Sholayar areas.
- Moderate to Isolated Heavy Rain: Predicted for Delta districts (Nagapattinam, Karaikal, Thiruvarur, Kallakurichi) and districts including Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, and Chengalpattu.
- Cloudy with Isolated Light Rain: Expected in many interior districts (Ranipet, Vellore, Tiruvannamalai), coastal areas like Villupuram, Pondicherry, Cuddalore, Mayiladuthurai, and regions like Thanjavur, Karur, Namakkal, Erode, Tiruppur, Coimbatore, and Dindigul.
- Light to Isolated Moderate Rain: Forecast for South Tamil Nadu districts, including Theni, Madurai, Sivaganga, Ramanathapuram, Virudhunagar, Tenkasi, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli, and Kanyakumari.
The system is primarily expected to provide rain to North Tamil Nadu. Once the system crosses the border entirely (around October 28th), dry weather conditions are expected to prevail across most of Tamil Nadu.
Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, and Central India:
- Widespread Heavy Rain: Expected in many areas of Kerala, especially Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur, and Kasaragod districts.
- Moderate to Isolated Heavy Rain: Forecast for Idukki, Pathanamthitta, Kollam, and Thiruvananthapuram.
- Coastal Karnataka & Goa: Heavy rain expected in Dakshina Kannada, Udupi, and Uttara Kannada.
- Interior Karnataka: Widespread moderate rain, with isolated heavy showers in certain parts, including Bengaluru and surrounding areas (Haveri, Shimoga, Chitradurga, Mysore, etc.).
- Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh: Moderate to heavy rain is likely.
Recent Rainfall Highlights (Last 24 Hours)
Several areas recorded significant rainfall in the last 24 hours:
- Vellore District: Tharapadvedu recorded 80.4 mm of rain.
- Chennai: Oggiyam Thuraipakkam received 62.6 mm, Medavakkam 58.8 mm, Velachery 46.8 mm, Kannagi Nagar 40.2 mm, Pallavaram 40 mm, and Alandur 39.6 mm.
- Thanjavur: Thirumangalakottai Melaiyur recorded 56.4 mm.
- Tiruvarur: Kandithampettai received 50 mm.
- Other notable records include Ariyanipatti, Pudukottai (44 mm), and Pakirippalayam, Villupuram (35.2 mm).
Stay safe and stay tuned for the next live update tonight!
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