Weather Alert: Cyclone Montha Intensifies – Landfall Expected Between Machilipatnam and Kakinada
Good morning! Here is the latest update on Severe Cyclonic Storm Montha, which has intensified over the Bay of Bengal, posing a significant rain threat across South India.
(Note: This analysis is based on a personal weather prediction. For official forecasts and information, please follow the announcements from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and RSASR.)
Montha: The Current Status
Cyclone Montha has officially intensified into a severe cyclonic storm (தீவிர புயல்). The system is currently positioned in the Bay of Bengal, specifically located around 11.3 latitude and 85.4 longitude.
Key details regarding the storm's structure and intensity:
- Sustained winds on the exterior are measured at 40 knots.
- The total circumference of the storm is vast, measuring 145 nautical miles.
- The system's diameter in the southwest direction spans 75 nautical miles.
- Central pressure measurements (998 hPa) show minor fluctuations between 998 and 996 hPa.
Movement and Expected Landfall
Montha is presently moving in a west-northwesterly direction (மேற்கு வடமேற்கு திசை). The system is attempting to adjust its path, or "recurving," and move northwest, a process known as "wabble," driven by underlying pressure systems and ridges.
It is expected that the storm will move completely northwest later this afternoon. Landfall is confirmed and is anticipated to occur as a severe cyclonic storm between Machilipatnam and Kakinada. This is projected to happen by tomorrow evening or night.
Rain Forecast: Who Gets Hit Hardest?
While the core cyclonic impact is focused on Andhra Pradesh, the outer bands and moisture inflow are bringing significant rainfall to multiple states over the next 24 hours.
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu residents do not need to fear the cyclone's impact itself, as the system is primarily headed toward Andhra. However, the state will experience significant rainfall.
- The first outer band of the system reached Chennai this morning, resulting in light, scattered rain.
- Moderate to heavy rain is expected today in North Tamil Nadu and regions adjacent to the Western Ghats. This includes districts like Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, Nilgiris, Coimbatore, Valparai, Erode, and Dharmapuri.
- Very heavy rain is specifically possible in North Chennai and areas bordering Andhra Pradesh, such as Pulicat.
- After the system progresses toward Andhra Pradesh, a dry spell and drought conditions are likely to prevail in Tamil Nadu.
Andhra Pradesh
Coastal Andhra Pradesh is bracing for heavy rain. Districts expected to see heavy rainfall include Anakapalle, Visakhapatnam, Kakinada, Konaseema, Godavari, Vijayawada, Guntur, Bapatla, Prakasam, Nellore, Kavali, and Tirupati. Moderate to heavy rain is forecast for inland districts like Srikakulam, Rajahmundri, Eluru, Nandyal, and Chittoor.
Kerala
Kerala is expected to experience "Pull effect rains" as the system pulls in moisture-rich directional winds.
- Heavy rain is likely across most districts, including Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur, and Kasaragod.
- Only Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam are expected to see moderate rain.
Karnataka
Rainfall in Karnataka is also influenced by a persistent depression in the Arabian Sea.
- Heavy rain is forecast for the coastal belt, including Goa, Uttara Kannada, Udupi, and Dakshina Kannada.
- Inland areas, such as Bengaluru, Kolar, Chikmagalur, Tumkur, Mandya, Bellary, Dharwad, and Belgaum, may experience moderate to heavy rain.
Telangana
Eastern parts of Telangana are expected to see heavy rain. These districts include Mulugu, Kothagudem, Mahabubabad, Khammam, Suryapet, Nalgonda, Kurnool, and Wanaparthy Jagulamba. Hyderabad and other remaining districts will likely experience light rain, with more widespread activity expected starting tomorrow.
Stay safe and stay tuned for further updates on the movement of Cyclone Montha! We will provide a full update tonight covering the ridge systems.
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