Cyclone Montha Landfall Imminent: Andhra Pradesh Braces for Impact as Tamil Nadu Enters Monsoon Lull
Date of Forecast: October 28, 2025
Today marks the day that Cyclone Montha (சைக்ளோன் முந்தா) is expected to make landfall, bringing heavy weather to the central and southern coastal regions of India. Currently, this system is characterized by a pressure of 993 hPa.
Cyclone Montha: Location and Landfall Timeline
As of the morning of October 28, 2025, Cyclone Montha has already crossed the Tamil Nadu border during the previous night.
Key Metrics and Movement:
- The cyclone is situated about 350 km from Chennai.
- It is located approximately 310 km from Kakinada, which is near the anticipated landfall area between Masulipatnam, Kakinada, and Kalingapatnam.
- The system is moving in a North-Northwest (வடமேற்கு) direction.
- JTWC updates confirm that the storm has deviated significantly away from Chennai and is heading toward Andhra Pradesh. Its current coordinates are noted as 14.2°N, 83.5°E, moving at a speed of 5 to 10 km/h.
The landfall event is expected to commence sometime this evening, specifically between 5:00 PM and 8:00 PM today.
Expected Impacts and Rainfall Warnings
The regions facing the most severe weather warnings are Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
Wind and Safety:
- During landfall, surface wind speeds (தரைக்காற்று) are anticipated to be strong, ranging from 90 to 100 km/h, with potential gusts reaching up to 110 km/h.
- Residents in the coastal districts are urged to be highly vigilant starting from 3:00 PM this afternoon.
Severe Rainfall Zones:
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected across South and Central Andhra, Telangana, and the Visakhapatnam region.
- Andhra Pradesh: Many districts are forecast to receive heavy rain, with some areas experiencing extremely heavy rainfall (அதிதீவிர கனமழை). These areas include Nellore, Kavali, Prakasam, Bapatla, Ongole, Palnadu, Guntur, Vijayawada, Eluru, the Godavari districts (East and West), Konaseema, Visakhapatnam, and Srikakulam. Some regions may see rainfall totals between 11 to 13 cm, potentially even reaching 15 cm.
- Telangana: Eastern parts, particularly Khammam and Kothagudem, face the highest risk of extremely heavy rainfall. Surrounding areas like Warangal, Mahabubabad, Nalgonda, Hyderabad, and Siddipet will likely see heavy rain, and in some parts, very heavy rain.
- Wider Regional Impact: Widespread moderate to heavy rain, extending up to severe heavy rain, is also expected today across parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh. This wet spell is likely to persist in Telangana, Andhra, and Odisha over the next two to three days.
Tamil Nadu Outlook: The Monsoon Break Begins
The good news for Tamil Nadu is that the impact of Cyclone Montha has completely moved away (பாதிப்பு முற்றிலும் விலகிவிட்டது).
Today's Weather (October 28):
- Today is considered the last day of widespread rain related to this system.
- Moderate rain is possible in a few coastal and delta areas, including Chennai, Thiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, Nagai, Thiruvarur, coastal Thanjavur, coastal Pudukottai, and coastal Ramanathapuram. Moderate rain is also possible in Kanyakumari, Valparai, and Nilgiris.
- Rain is expected to completely cease in all parts of Tamil Nadu after this afternoon (பிறபகலுக்குப் பிறகாக). In Chennai, specifically, the rain is projected to stop completely after 9:00 PM or 10:00 PM.
A Lull in the Monsoon:
Following today's weather, the region will enter what is described as a long break or lull (தொய்வு) in the Northeast Monsoon. During this intermittent period, there may still be chances for convective rain (வெப்பச்சலன மழை), particularly in inland Tamil Nadu.
Updates on Other Systems
While Montha is the primary concern, other weather systems are also being monitored:
- Arabian Sea Depression: A depression in the Arabian Sea continues to persist but is expected to weaken within the next two to three days.
- Pacific Circulation: An upper-air cyclonic circulation near Thailand in the Pacific Ocean is forecast to move into the North Andaman coastal areas within 48 to 72 hours. However, this system is currently not expected to affect Tamil Nadu or bring rainfall there, suggesting a continuation of dry weather.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on the individual weather assessment from Rainman Studio as of October 28, 2025. Always follow official weather announcements and advisories from the Indian Meteorological Department and government authorities..
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