Weather Update: Montha Weakens, Monsoon Takes a Break, and Convectional Rain is Here (October 29)
Disclaimer: This analysis is a personal weather prediction (தனிப்பட்ட வாநிலை அனுமானம்). For official weather forecasts and information, please follow the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and government data.
The weather landscape across South India is rapidly changing following the recent severe weather system. Here is the latest update for October 29th, drawing on regional and macro-level changes.
The Status of Cyclone Montha
We can confirm that the severe cyclonic storm Montha (தீவிர புயல் மோந்தா), which was situated near the Andhra coast, crossed the coast yesterday evening. The Indian Meteorological Department recorded its speed at 85 km/h.
Currently, the system is hovering near the Andhra-Telangana border regions. Montha is expected to lose strength (வழுவிழந்து) over the next few hours. It is projected to move west-northwest, traveling through the area between Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh. Utilizing the western disturbance (மேற்கத்திய கழக்கம்), it will proceed via Uttar Pradesh to the Himalayan foothills. We anticipate that it will gradually become inactive (செயலுக்கு கூடும்). This entire process is expected to take the next two to three days.
The Northeast Monsoon is on Intermission
Following the passing of Montha, the focus shifts to the seasonal rains. This current weather pattern signifies a "break" (பிரேக்) in the North East Monsoon cycle, which is common during any monsoon season.
Another low-pressure area that moved from near the Philippines and is currently near Thailand is expected to enter the Bay of Bengal. However, due to the influence of the western disturbance, it is projected to move towards Myanmar and also become inactive. These combined events are anticipated to take the next six to eight days.
Because of these developments, the return of the easterly winds (கிழக்கு திசை காற்றினுடைய வருகை) is only expected to reach the Bay of Bengal around the 10th. Therefore, the Northeast Monsoon (வடகிழக்கு பருவமழை) is forecasted to resume in Tamil Nadu starting only from the 11th of the month.
It is worth noting that Tamil Nadu has already received significant rainfall this month, with a 55% excess recorded for October. Chennai specifically registered 44% excess rainfall.
Current Rain Dynamics: Convectional Showers
During this break period, the prevailing winds are westerly (மேற்கு திசை காற்று), similar to the pattern seen during the Southwest Monsoon. This setup strongly favors convectional rain (வெப்பச்சலன மழை). Rainfall will mostly be characterized by localized thunderstorms (இடிமழை). Widespread, continuous rain (பரவலான மழை) is not expected across most regions in the coming days.
Today’s Forecast (24 Hours): Regional Outlook
The lingering effects of Montha are producing significant rain across several states:
Kerala
Widespread moderate to heavy rain is likely today due to the pull (ஈர்ப்பு) of the Montha system and the resulting westerly winds.
- Widespread Moderate to Heavy Rain: Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Alappuzha, Ernakulam, Palakkad, and Thrissur districts.
- Widespread Moderate Rain (Heavy in pockets): Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur, and Kasaragod districts.
Karnataka and Goa
Widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected in Bidar, Kalaburagi, Yadgir, Lower Kodagu (கீழ கொடகு), Dakshina Kannada (தட்சிண கனடா), Uttara Kannada (உத்தர கன்னடா), and Goa. Other districts, including Bengaluru, may see light rain.
Andhra Pradesh & Telangana
Yesterday saw heavy rain in Kavali, Pattapla, Ongole, and Visakhapatnam. Today, the focus shifts slightly:
- Andhra Pradesh: Light to moderate rain is widely possible in Nandhyal, Prakasam, Pattapla, Guntur, Vijayawada, Eluru, NTR, West Godavari, East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, Manakapalli, Rajamundry, Kakinada, and Konaseema. Heavy rain is specifically possible in Palnadu district.
- Telangana: Widespread heavy rain (பலத்தமழை) is anticipated today. Areas like Khammam, Suryapet, Mahabubabad, Warangal, Jangaon, and Yadadri face chances of widespread heavy rain. Hyderabad and surrounding areas may see moderate to heavy rain, with chances of intense rain in some spots.
Tamil Nadu & Puducherry
Convectional rain will be the dominant type due to the westerly wind setup:
- Moderate Rain (Heavy in some areas): Valparai and surrounding areas, Theni, Dindigul, eastern parts of Trichy, Pudukottai, Sivaganga, Thanjavur, Thiruvarur, Nagapattinam district, Villupuram, and Puducherry.
- Light or Moderate Rain (in some parts): Southern districts including Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Tenkasi, Virudhunagar, Madurai, Ramanathapuram, and Thoothukudi.
- Light Rain (in a few areas): Nilgiris, Coimbatore, Erode, Tiruppur, Karur, Namakkal, Salem, and Dharmapuri districts.
- Cloud Cover with Light Rain Potential (in a few areas): Chennai, Thiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, Thiruvannamalai, Kallakurichi, Cuddalore, Mayiladuthurai, Ariyalur, Perambalur, and Trichy.
- Vidarbhaaa western Maharashtra Chhattisgarh will get Moderate to Heavy Rains for next 36hrs further the rains will spread in to Uttarpradesh
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