Weather Update: Telangana Drenched, Northeast Monsoon Faces Setback
Date of Analysis: October 30, 2025 (Note: This analysis is a personal weather prediction. For official forecasts and information, please follow the Indian Meteorological Department and government announcements.)
The weather patterns across South India are showing significant variation this week, with record-breaking rainfall hammering Telangana, while atmospheric forces suggest a delay or reduction in the intensity of the Northeast Monsoon in Tamil Nadu.
The Deluge in Telangana: Extreme Rain Events
The system, a remnant of the cyclone (referred to as "Mandous" in the original context) that crossed near Andhra Pradesh, moved into the Telangana regions, causing heavy downpours. Areas such as Warangal and Mahabubabad recorded intense rainfall. Indeed, it can be said that rain "washed" Telangana.
Just in the last 24 hours, several locations reported staggering amounts of precipitation, exceeding 40 cm in some areas.
Observed Extreme Rainfall (Past 24 Hours):
- 422 mm: Bheemadevarapalli (near Hanumakonda/Warangal)
- 415 mm: Kalleda (Parvathagiri district, Warangal)
- 358.5 mm: Reddilawada (Warangal)
- 347 mm: Oorussurwalam (Warangal)
- 333 mm: Dharmasagar (Hanumakonda)
The widespread nature of the event is remarkable; roughly 20 districts recorded "double centuries" (over 200 mm), and about 20 to 25 places recorded "centuries" (over 100 mm). Telangana, which was previously noted to be deficient in rainfall, has now shifted to an excess due to this single intense spell.
Rainfall activity is expected to continue in Telangana, with moderate in districts like Adilabad, Komaram Bheem, Mancherial, Jayashankar, and Warangal. Lighter rain is expected in Hyderabad, Jangaon, Jagtial, Nizamabad, Nirmal, Kamareddy, Kothagudem, Mahabubabad, and Khammam.
Tracking the Systems
The system responsible for the Telangana deluge is currently located near Nagpur, Maharashtra, and the Vidarbha regions. It is forecasted to move northwest, passing through Uttar Pradesh, and then moving via Bihar towards the Himalayan Hills. It is expected to become inactive (dissipate) within the next 48 to 72 hours while moving east-northeast.
Simultaneously, a depression continues to persist in the Arabian Sea. Furthermore, an upper-air circulation located near Malaysia and Thailand is projected to enter the Bay of Bengal within the next 24 to 48 hours, although it is likely to proceed towards Myanmar due to atmospheric movement.
Monsoon Woes: Negative IOD Peaks
Looking ahead, the atmospheric conditions suggest that the expected shift to easterly winds is very low for approximately the next 10 days. This transition is expected to only begin around the 8th or 9th of the month.
A major factor influencing this is the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently peaking at 1.62 (up from 1.16 when the Northeast Monsoon began). This combination of a strong Negative IOD and the MJO moving past phases four and five, creates a "suppression phase" in the Bay of Bengal.
This means there will be limited opportunity for significant rain-generating systems (convective activity) in the Bay of Bengal. A strong Negative IOD is associated with a weaker Northeast Monsoon wind. Therefore, during this period, large amounts of rain are not expected; precipitation will largely rely on localized convective systems (thermal convection).Second Half of November is fully depends on Tropical Waves Support and expected the Negative Iod to comedown.
Forecast for the Next 24 Hours in South India
Kerala
Generally, light to moderate rain is expected. Heavy rain is possible in the western areas of districts including Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Palakkad, Malappuram, Wayanad, Kannur, and Kasaragod. Lighter rain is expected in areas like Kottayam, Alappuzha, Thrissur, Ernakulam, Kozhikode, and the eastern parts of Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram.
Karnataka and Goa
The influence of the Arabian Sea depression will help bring moderate to heavy rain to coastal regions, including Karavali Karnataka, Kodagu, Dakshina Kannada, Udupi, and Uttara Kannada. Other areas, including Bangalore, are likely to see light rain under cloudy skies.
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh has largely received rain relief. Rain triggered by thermal convection (thunderstorm activity) is expected today in Tirupati, Chittoor, and Annamayya, as well as isolated areas in Nellore. Most of Rayalaseema and Central Andhra will experience dry weather. Moderate rain is possible only in Alluri Sitharama Raju and Srikakulam.
Tamil Nadu
There is a chance for light thundershowers in several areas. This includes Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, and Ranipet. Similar conditions are expected in Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Salem, Namakkal, Karur, Erode, the Nilgiris, and Valparai. In the southern districts—such as Theni, Madurai, Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Tenkasi, Tirunelveli, and Kanyakumari—light to, at maximum, moderate rain can be expected during the evening and night hours.
Recent Tamil Nadu Rainfall (Past 24 Hours):
- Valparai: 17.6 mm
- Courtallam (Tenkasi): 15.6 mm
- Nelliyalam (Nilgiris): 11.6 mm
- Manalodai (Kanyakumari): 8 mm
- Pollachi: 7.2 mm
We remain hopeful for positive changes. Tamil Nadu still has opportunities for convection rain in the coming days. Stay tuned for further daily updates.
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