Weather Update: Heat and Convective Rain Contrast on November 2, 2025
Good morning and welcome back! Today, November 2, 2025, brings notable shifts in the weather patterns compared to yesterday.
(Please note: This forecast draws on a personal weather assumption. For official weather predictions and information, please follow the Indian Meteorological Department and government announcements).
System Changes: Weakening and Emerging Circulations
Several weather systems are changing their intensity and location:
- Gujarat Low-Pressure Area: The low-pressure area near the Gujarat coast has completely weakened into an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the coastal regions of Gujarat. It is expected to move inland and weaken entirely in the coming hours.
- Cyclone Remnants: The weakened low-pressure area linked to the "Moandha Cyclone" (மோந்தா புயலனுடைய) shifted north-eastward from Bihar yesterday. Today, it is situated between Assam, West Bengal, and Bangladesh. This system is also expected to weaken in the next few hours.
- New Andaman/Myanmar Circulation: As these two systems dissipate, a new upper-air cyclonic circulation currently located near Myanmar and the Andaman Islands is expected to strengthen into a low-pressure area by this evening or night. However, due to the drift of the Western Stream (மேற்கத்திய கழக்கத்தின் டிரிப்ட்), this system is forecast to move west-northwest, cross over Myanmar, and ultimately weaken. This development and subsequent weakening process is anticipated to take approximately 32 to 36 hours.
Focus on Tamil Nadu: Heat and Thunderstorms
In the interim period, before the new Andaman system fully develops, a weather scenario favorable for convective rainfall (வெப்பச்சலன மழை) will prevail in Tamil Nadu (TN). This is supported by the current weather setup, which creates a wind convergence zone due to Western winds.
Temperature Spike Expected
Despite the rain chances, maximum temperatures in interior parts of Tamil Nadu are expected to be 3 to 5 degrees Celsius higher than normal.
- Areas affected by above-normal heat: Salem, Namakkal, Trichy, Erode, Tiruppur, Dindigul, Madurai, Theni, Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli, Virudhunagar, Tiruvannamalai, Puducherry, Cuddalore, and the Delta regions.
- Specific Temperature Forecasts:
- If the normal temperature is 30°C–32°C, the actual temperature could rise to 33°C to 35°C.
- Central and Western districts could see temperatures ranging from 36°C to 37°C.
- Southern Tamil Nadu is expected to reach 35°C to 36°C.
- Delta districts will generally see highs between 33°C and 34°C.
- Chennai and Surrounding Areas: Temperatures here are expected to remain close to normal because thunderstorms are anticipated today.
Rainfall Forecast for Tamil Nadu (Next 24 Hours)
Rain chances are primarily due to convective thunderstorms:
- Moderate to Heavy Rain Potential:
- Vellore, the central and northern parts of Tiruvannamalai, Chengalpattu, Villupuram, and Pondicherry (Puducherry) have a chance of moderate to, in some isolated areas, heavy rain.
- Light to Moderate Rain Potential:
- Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, and Ranipet districts are expected to receive light to moderate rain. Rainfall amounts of 10 to 12 millimeters are expected, though slightly more is possible depending on the wind conditions and the intensity and movement of the thunderstorms.
- Nagapattinam, Karaikal, Mayiladuthurai, Cuddalore, Kallakurichi, and the western districts of Villupuram.
- Light Rain (Evening/Night):
- Southern Tamil Nadu, specifically Theni, Madurai, and Ramanathapuram districts, may see cloud cover with light rain in the evening and night.
- Coastal districts generally have possibilities of receiving rain today.
Regional Weather Round-Up
The influence of the convective weather extends beyond TN:
- Kerala: Only light rain is possible in a few districts, including Kasaragod, Kannur, Thrissur, Ernakulam, Idukki, Kottayam, Alappuzha, and Kollam. Other districts will continue to experience dry weather.
- Karnataka: Light rain is possible in the Bengaluru suburbs, Chikkaballapur, Tumakuru, Karavali Karnataka, and parts of Central Karnataka. Moderate rain is likely in Kalaburagi and Bidar due to the presence of a convergence zone.
- Andhra Pradesh: Convective thunderstorms are expected. Light or moderate rain is forecast for Kurnool, Nellore, Kavali, and parts of Chittoor. Light rain is expected in districts like Guntur, Palnadu, Bapatla, Prakasam, Nandyal, Vizag (Vyasar), Anantapur, Satyavedu, Annamayya, and Tirupati. Chittoor has a chance of moderate to heavy rain.
- Telangana: Moderate to heavy rain is possible in Adilabad, Nirmal, Nagarkurnool, and Wanaparthy. Light rain is forecast for other districts, including Hyderabad.
Looking Ahead
Weather patterns are expected to remain somewhat variable until the 15th of the month. We are monitoring the anticipated revival of the Northeast Monsoon ( கிழக்கு திசை காற்று - East direction wind), which is expected around the 10th or 11th. Whether this will be a "full-fledged" revival remains to be seen.
Posts
