Weather Shift Alert: Northeast Winds Arrive, Bringing Heavy Rain to South India (October 12, 2025 Forecast)
Good morning! This weather update, provided by Venkatesh of Rainman Studio, details the significant changes occurring in atmospheric patterns and the resulting rainfall predictions for the next 24 hours.
A Crucial Change: The Northeast Wind Arrives
We are observing a major shift in weather dynamics beginning yesterday evening: the potential for easterly winds (specifically, the North East direction) to establish themselves has begun. This transition involves air flowing from the northeast along the entire East Coast, stretching from Odisha and West Bengal down to the southernmost tip of Tamil Nadu.
While this shift is not fully established yet, the change in wind direction is already apparent and is expected to strengthen over the next couple of days.
This change is driven by two main factors:
- An upper air cyclonic circulation that has moved into the Arabian Sea region.
- A localized disturbance, which could lead to an upper air circulation, is present in the Andaman Sea.
- An existing upper air cyclonic circulation near North Tamil Nadu has moved slightly north, currently hovering over the Andhra region.
Please note: This is a personal weather analysis. For official weather forecasts and announcements, always follow the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and government-related announcements.
Detailed Rain Forecast: Next 24 Hours
The change in wind direction will influence rainfall patterns significantly across South India. Here is the forecast for October 12, 2025:
1. Kerala
Kerala is forecast to receive widespread rainfall, particularly along the Western Ghats.
- Heavy to Very Heavy Rain: Likely in regions bordering the Western Ghats, including Idukki, Pathanamthitta, Kollam, and parts of Thiruvananthapuram.
- Moderate to Heavy Rain: Expected in most parts of Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, and Kannur.
- Light Rain: Expected only in some parts of the Kasaragod district.
2. Telangana
Rain is forecast across several parts of Telangana, particularly in the east.
- Widespread Moderate Rain with Thunder: Expected in eastern districts, including Kothagudem, Khammam, Suryapet, Nalgonda, Warangal, Jangaon, and Mulugu.
- Light Rain: Possible in surrounding areas such as Kumuram Bheem, Mancherial, Peddapalli, Karimnagar, Siddipet, parts of Hyderabad, Nagarkurnool, Wanaparthy, and Jagtial.
3. Andhra Pradesh
Many parts of Andhra Pradesh are expected to see moderate to heavy rain today.
- Light to Moderate Rain (with isolated Heavy Rain possible): Forecast for Chittoor, Tirupati, Nellore, Kavali, Nandyal, Prakasam, Bapatla, Vijayawada, Guntur, Rajahmundry, Kakinada, and Machilipatnam.
- Heavy Rain: Possible in several parts of North Andhra, specifically the districts of Visakhapatnam and Vizianagaram.
- Rayalaseema: Inland areas of Rayalaseema have a reduced chance of rain, with only light rain expected in some parts.
4. Tamil Nadu and Puducherry
The shift to easterly winds increases rain prospects across many districts, especially in the southern and coastal areas.
- Heavy Rain: Likely in Nagercoil and Kanyakumari. Heavy rain is also likely in Puducherry, Cuddalore, and Mayiladuthurai districts.
- Widespread Moderate to Heavy Rain: Forecast for Tirunelveli, Tenkasi, and Thoothukudi.
- Moderate Rain (with isolated Heavy Rain possible): Expected in Virudhunagar, Theni, Madurai, Ramanathapuram, Tiruchirappalli, Perambalur, Kallakurichi, Thiruvannamalai, and Villupuram. There is a strong possibility of intense rain in areas located between Villupuram and Kallakurichi.
- Moderate to Heavy Rain: Forecast for Chengalpattu, Kanchipuram, Ranipet, Vellore, and the western parts of Thiruvallur.
- Light to Moderate Rain: Expected in Chennai and surrounding areas of Chengalpattu and Thiruvallur. Light to moderate rain is also predicted for The Nilgiris (Ooty), Coimbatore, Erode, Tiruppur, Dindigul, Namakkal, and Karur.
- Light Rain: Possible in Nagapattinam, Karaikal, Tiruvarur, Pudukkottai, Sivaganga, Thanjavur (coastal parts), Tirupattur, Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, and western parts of Salem, Erode, and Tiruppur.
Note on Karnataka
Karnataka and Krishnagiri regions have been largely excluded from major forecasts today because the easterly wind direction does not favor convergence further inland, meaning only light rain is expected in a few isolated spots.
We hope this update has provided clarity on the expected weather conditions and the underlying causes of the rainfall. If you have differing views or found this information helpful, please leave a comment.
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