Northeast Monsoon is Coming Soon: Widespread Heavy Rain Forecast for South India Today!
Date: October 11, 2025 Source: Rainman Studio - MAS Rainman (Personal weather assessment)
Good morning! Today, October 11, 2025, marks a critical period in the transition of weather systems across South India. While we await the official onset of the Northeast Monsoon, many regions are set for widespread rain and intense thunderstorms.
Note: This is a personal weather assessment (வெங்கடேஷ் எம்எஸ் ரென்மேன்). For official weather announcements and information, please follow the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and official government announcements.
North East Monsoon 2025 Inference https://youtu.be/sAw5IKkTEng
Current Weather Systems and Monsoon Transition
Several factors are influencing today's weather:
- Upper-Air Circulation: An atmospheric upper-air circulation system that was hovering over North Tamil Nadu has slightly shifted and is now situated in the region between Andhra Pradesh and Chennai.
- Wind Dynamics: Due to this system, uncertainty in wind direction and wind friction continues to prevail over Interior Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala. This environment increases the probability of convective rain and thunderstorms (வெப்பச்சரண மழை இடிமலை) across these regions today.
- Cyclone Remnants: The remnants of Cyclone Shakti from the Arabian Sea continue to exist as an upper-air cyclonic circulation.
These systems indicate wind differences, but a major shift is imminent: the full transition to Easterly winds (கிழக்கு திசை காற்று) is expected within the next two to three days.
Southwest Monsoon Withdrawal Update
The withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon continues its progression.
Satellite images taken at 5:45 AM show dry air (represented by the yellow color in the imagery) extending over Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Bihar, where the Southwest Monsoon has already withdrawn. This withdrawal boundary is expected to move further south to the areas bordering Telangana and Karnataka within the next day. The maximum expected time for the full withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon is two to three days, following which favorable conditions for the start of the Northeast Monsoon will be established..
Rain Forecast for the Next 24 Hours
Rain clouds and thunderstorms have been observed over Kerala, parts of Interior Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and in the Arabian Sea near Kerala.
Kerala
Widespread moderate to heavy rain accompanied by thunder is forecast for many districts, including Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Palakkad, Thrissur (West), Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur, and Kasaragod. Light rain is also possible in the coastal districts of Thrissur, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Alappuzha, Kollam, and Thiruvananthapuram.
Karnataka & Goa
Coastal Karnataka (Uttara Kannada, Udupi, Dakshina Kannada, and the adjoining region of Goa) is expected to receive widespread moderate rain. Interior districts, including Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru, Hassan, Tumakuru, Mandya, Mysuru, Chamrajnagar, Ramanagara, Bengaluru and its surrounding areas, Chikkaballapur, and Kolar, also have a chance for widespread moderate rain. Heavy rain is possible in some areas surrounding Bengaluru.
Andhra Pradesh & Telangana
Widespread heavy rain with thunder is anticipated across coastal Andhra regions, including Vizianagaram, Anakapalle, Kakinada, Machilipatnam, Vijayawada, Krishna, Godavari, Guntur, Palnadu, Prakasam, Kavali, Nellore, Tirupati, and Chittoor districts.
In the interior Rayalaseema regions (Kurnool, Anantapur, Nandyal, Kadapa, Satyasaie, Annamayya, and Srikakulam), light rain and cloud cover may occur in some areas.Isolated Light Rains Possible in Kothagudem & Mullugu Remaining districts including Hyderabad remains Dry.
Tamil Nadu
Rain is expected across multiple regions today:
- South Tamil Nadu: Light rain is expected in parts of Tenkasi, Tirunelveli, and Kanyakumari.
- Central & Interior Districts: Widespread moderate to heavy thunderstorms are forecast for Thoothukudi, Virudhunagar, Ramanathapuram, Madurai, Theni, Cumbum, Bodinayakkanur, Dindigul, and Sivaganga.
- Western Districts: Moderate to heavy rain is expected in Nilgiris, Coimbatore, Valparai, Tiruppur, and Erode districts.
- Delta Districts: Widespread moderate rain is anticipated in Cuddalore, Mayiladuthurai, Nagapattinam, Karaikal, Tiruvarur, Ariyalur, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai, Tiruchirappalli, and Perambalur. Heavy rain is possible in some parts of the Delta districts.
- Northern/Other Districts: Moderate to heavy rain is possible in Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Salem, Namakkal, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Ranipet, Vellore, Tiruvannamalai, Tirupattur, Villupuram, Pondicherry, and Kallakurichi.
- Chennai/Chengalpattu: Only light rain is expected in a few areas.
Stay updated! Changes to these forecasts are constantly being posted on our Twitter handle. The link is in the description. Remember to subscribe and enable notifications for more timely updates. Thank you, and have a nice day!
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