Heavy Rain Alert! New Low-Pressure System Brewing in the Bay of Bengal – Weather Update October 23, 2025
Good Morning from Rainman Studio!
Today, October 23, 2025, we are analyzing significant changes in atmospheric conditions that point toward continued rainfall across South India and the development of a major new system in the Bay of Bengal. Please remember that this is a personal weather analysis, and for official forecasts and information, always follow announcements from the Indian Meteorological Department and government authorities.
Current Weather Systems and Wind Patterns
The initial well-marked low-pressure area that was previously situated in the Bay of Bengal has now weakened into an upper air cyclonic circulation (UACC) and has merged with the system moving inland from the Arabian Sea, settling over interior Tamil Nadu.
Currently, we observe several circulatory systems:
- An existing UACC is located just west of the Andaman Islands.
- Another UACC is situated near Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore.
- A depression is also present in the Arabian Sea, which is beginning to move slightly in Eastern and then West-Northwest directions.
Regarding wind flow, the equatorial flow (westerly wind) is currently moving towards us, driven by the depression in the Arabian Sea. Specifically in South Tamil Nadu, the wind flow is westerly, a change expected to occur in North Tamil Nadu as well.
Rainfall Recorded in the Last 24 Hours
The last 24 hours saw significant heavy rainfall recorded, particularly in the Dharmapuri district.
Highlights of Heavy Rainfall (in mm):
- Theerthamalai (Dharmapuri): 176.80 mm.
- Mambatti: 130 mm.
- Suriyakadi: 122 mm.
- Parayapatti: 119 mm.
- Thakkolam (Ranipet): 106.80 mm.
- Bainayakanpatti (Dharmapuri): 101 mm.
- Vyasapuram (Thiruvallur): 100 mm.
Heavy rain was widespread across Dharmapuri. Other notable stations include Arakkonam (91.6 mm) and Avoorpet in Villupuram (90.80 mm).
Next 24-Hour Rain Forecast (October 23-24)
Due to the convergence of these systems, several regions are expected to receive rainfall over the next 24 hours.
Kerala
Widespread heavy rain is expected, similar to the previous day, driven by westerly winds. Heavy to very heavy rain is forecasted for Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Kottayam, Alappuzha, Ernakulam, Thrissur, and Malappuram. Moderate to heavy rain is possible in Palakkad, Wayanad, Kozhikode, Kannur, and Kasaragod districts.
Karnataka
Heavy to very heavy rain is likely in coastal areas (Karavali Karnataka, Uttara Kannada, Udupi, Dakshina Kannada) and inland districts like Bidar, Gulbarga, Kalaburagi, Yadgir, Raichur, Vijayapura, Bagalkot, Koppal, Bellary, Gadag, and Dharwad. Moderate to heavy rain is also expected in many other districts, including Bengaluru, Mandya, Mysore, Hassan, Kodagu, and Shimoga.
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana
Heavy to very heavy rain is widely possible in Coastal Andhra Pradesh regions such as Machilipatnam, Vijayawada, Krishna, Guntur, Palnadu, Prakasam, Nellore, Kavali, and Tirupati. Similarly, the Rayalaseema regions, including Nandyal, Kurnool, Anantapur, Kadapa, and Chittoor, are expected to see widespread heavy to very heavy rain. Moderate rain is forecasted for North Andhra regions like Visakhapatnam and Srikakulam.
In Telangana, districts such as Jagtial, Wanaparthy, and Nagarkurnool may see heavy rain. Heavy rain is also likely in other districts including Khammam, Suryapet, Nalgonda, Warangal, Hyderabad, and Karimnagar.
Tamil Nadu
Wind pattern changes are occurring, with westerly winds already in place in South Tamil Nadu and shifting towards North Tamil Nadu.
- Heavy to very heavy rain is possible in some parts of Nagercoil, Kanyakumari, Tenkasi, Valparai, and Tiruvallur.
- Widespread moderate to heavy rain with thunder is expected in Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, Ramanathapuram, Virudhunagar, Madurai, Dindigul, Karur, Namakkal, Erode, Nilgiris, and Theni districts.
- Moderate rain with thunder, with isolated chances for heavy rain, is forecasted for Chennai, Kancheepuram, Chengalpattu, Villupuram, Puducherry, Tiruvannamalai, Vellore, Ranipet, Tirupattur, Krishnagiri, and Dharmapuri.
- Delta districts (Nagapattinam, Thiruvarur, Mayiladuthurai, Karaikal, Cuddalore) and districts like Kallakurichi, Perambalur, Ariyalur, Trichy, Pudukkottai, Sivaganga, Salem, Tiruppur, and Coimbatore are likely to receive light rain, with moderate rain expected in some specific areas.
Focus on the Developing System: New Low-Pressure Area
Looking ahead, we are tracking the UACC situated west of Andaman.
- Movement and Strengthening: Over the next 24 hours, this UACC is expected to move slightly west-northwest, followed by an eastward shift, adjusting its track. It has the potential to strengthen within the next 36 hours.
- Formation: It is projected that around October 25 (48 hours from now), this system will intensify into a low-pressure area over the Central Bay of Bengal.
- Track: This low-pressure area is likely to move west-northwest towards the North Tamil Nadu coast and the South Andhra Pradesh coast.
- Intensity: There are chances that this system could strengthen further into a well-marked low-pressure area, a depression, or even a deep depression before making landfall. While the possibility of it developing into a cyclone is currently low, this forecast is subject to changes.
Stay informed as we track this evolving weather system!
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