Tamil Nadu and Southern India Brace for Return of Convective Rains! (September 15, 2025 Weather Update)
Good morning, fellow weather enthusiasts! This blog post brings you a personal weather analysis for September 15, 2025, drawing insights from Rainman Studio - MAS Rainman இந்திய வானிலை. As always, please remember to follow official forecasts and advisories from the Indian Meteorological Department and government agencies.
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Current Atmospheric Conditions: What's Brewing?
The weather across India is currently influenced by several significant atmospheric systems:
• A low-pressure area that was near Telangana, in central India, has strengthened into an upper-air cyclonic circulation.
• Another upper-air cyclonic circulation is present in the Assam region.
• An favorable environment for the formation of an upper-air cyclonic circulation (a disturbance) is developing near the Andaman Sea. This system is expected to move west-northwest over the next couple of days, potentially gaining strength and turning into a low-pressure area around September 20-21, possibly near Visakhapatnam.
• An additional upper-air cyclonic circulation is observed over parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
• A trough line, connecting these systems, is also influencing interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
These interconnected systems are set to bring a significant change in weather patterns.
Return of Convective Rains to Tamil Nadu and Beyond!
Thanks to these atmospheric setups, Tamil Nadu is expected to see a resurgence of convective rains (வெப்பச்சலன மழை) starting today. This spell of rain is anticipated to continue for approximately 7 to 10 days, with widespread heavy rainfall expected in many parts of Tamil Nadu in the coming days.
Furthermore, the cyclonic circulations in north-central India are also bringing weaker westerly winds to the western coastal areas, which may lead to thunderstorm activity in some of these regions.
Detailed Rainfall Forecast for the Next 24 Hours:
Here's a breakdown of what to expect across different states:
Kerala
• Moderate to heavy rainfall with thunder and lightning is likely in most districts, including Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Alappuzha, Idukki, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Wayanad, and Malappuram, Kannur, Kasaragod. Kozhikode and Wayanad are also included.
Karnataka
• Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected in Bengaluru and its surrounding areas, KGF, Kolar, Mysuru, Mandya, Tumakuru, and Hassan.
• Thunder and lightning are also likely in Kodagu, Dakshina Kannada, Udupi, Uttara Kannada, Kalyana Karnataka, Belagavi, Hubballi, and Dharwad districts.
Andhra Pradesh
• Following heavy rains in Guntur district yesterday, similar conditions are expected today.
• Heavy rainfall is likely in NTR, Guntur, Eluru, and Krishna (Vijayawada) districts.
• The Rayalaseema region is also forecast to experience intense convective rains with thunder and lightning today, covering areas like Tirupati, Nellore, Kavali, Kadapa, Anantapur, Kurnool, Nandyal, Satya Sai, Annamayya, and Chittoor districts.
• Some parts of North Andhra may see moderate to heavy rainfall.
Telangana
• Due to the upper-air cyclonic circulation near the state, widespread moderate to heavy rainfall with thunder and lightning is expected today, including Hyderabad.
Tamil Nadu
• Southern Tamil Nadu: Nagercoil, Kanyakumari, coastal areas of Thoothukudi, Madurai, and Theni districts are likely to experience moderate to heavy rainfall.
• Tenkasi, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, Virudhunagar, Ramanathapuram, and Sivaganga districts may see cloudy skies with light to moderate rain in some areas.
• Nilgiris district is also expected to be affected by convective rains.
• Western & Central Tamil Nadu: Erode, Coimbatore, Tiruppur, Salem, Namakkal, Karur, Dindigul, Tiruchirappalli, Perambalur, Ariyalur, Thanjavur, and Pudukkottai districts may see light to moderate rainfall in some areas.
• Coastal & Delta Regions: Some parts of Mayiladuthurai, Karaikal, and Nagapattinam districts might receive light rain. However, the southern parts of Nagapattinam and some areas of Thiruvarur district could even experience moderate to heavy rainfall.
• Northern Interior & Coastal Districts: Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Tirupattur, Vellore, Ambur, Gudiyatham, Tiruvannamalai, Kallakurichi, Cuddalore, Puducherry, and Villupuram districts (including Tiruvannamalai) are expected to receive widespread moderate to heavy rainfall.
• Chennai and Surrounding Areas: Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Chengalpattu, and Ranipet districts are also likely to experience convective rains with thunder. Some areas in South Chennai districts might see light rain. There's also a possibility of heavy rain in certain isolated pockets, particularly from Puducherry down to Chengalpattu.
Important Note on Convective Rains
It's crucial to understand that convective rains are inherently unpredictable in terms of their exact hitting spots, unlike widespread monsoon rains. Their localized nature means forecasts can be more generalized. For the most continuous and real-time updates, we encourage you to follow our Facebook, Twitter, and WhatsApp channels (links in the video description).
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