North
East Monsoon-2024 Outlook - MasRainman (RainmanStudio)
This is my Personal Forecast for Official* forecast pls
follow Govt & (IMD) Official Agencies.
A best year Continuing form last 2020, 2021 2022 2023 &
2024 (SWM…) now we are stepping in to NEM 2024.
This Year Continued with Neutral IOD & Nina driven to
Lanina again which gave Best South west
Monsoon Memories.
Almost 95 to 97% Districts have Got their Normal to Above
Normal rains from June to September 30th.
Almost Recorded a Top 3 Excess monsoon years in Tamil Nadu
History.Will This Continue this year ??
NEM 2024 - Analysis
This Year Analog Trends Like 2005 & 2020
* Enso (Leaning to Lanina from Nina) & Neutra IOD
* MJO(VP), ER & Kelvin also matching with 2005 &
2020
* SST in bay Trending with 28-30 Degrees which can influence
good no of systems (Cyclones, DD, LPA)
(Neutral IOD & QBO can enhance the system most WNW movement &
some recurve Possibilities also exist - we can expect more systems &
intensity Varies)
* QBO is in Westerly Phase - Less Windshear which always
supports the system to get intensify.
* AO less in intensity as per global models - Means Western
Disturbance will not dip much.
(As my view - Nov
to Dec it may dip in low Latitude)
* ITCZ is in Above Lat from its normal position and it will
descend in late as the result more systems will target North TN to South AP
(OR) Central AP.
Its just a one
Factor of High Lat system.
* System Genesis will Decide the Fate of NEM because active West Pacific to be watched
which can throw pulses to Lower Lat Or Higher Lat.
* Expected Current MJO phase ends 2,3& 4 around from October first week to
boost the good NEM2024 onset as well. Further the behaviour of MJO in Nov is
crucial for further rains.(As per MJO Behaviour as observed from Nov 1st week end the fresh pulse
will emerge over the IO which will enhance the rains)
* Back trap of Lanina we can expect STW (Standing Wave
Conditions) this year too like 2020.it is subject to further Lanina Transition
from Nina State.
* As per my view Almost Systems can Take NW/WNW tracks
mostly .
* Active Conditions may influence 2 to 3 Cyclones in Bay
(Or) 2 Depressions, 2 to 3 LPA and Circulations.
NEM 2024 Onset Probably can hit Tamilnadu & AP coast by around 14 to 18 + or – 4 Days.
Excess Rainfall Expected in Andhra Pradesh & Telangana
Excess for North TN & Delta. Normal for Central &
Western Tamilnadu.
South TN May end Normal & Subject to Low Latitude
Systems.
All Over TN may get Normal Or Excess NEM this year. Over All
Good Monsoon Year Ahead for South
Peninsula.
KTCC - #Chennai #KAnchipuram #Thiruvallur #Chengalpattu
#Pondy #Vilupuram and rest of North TN will get Excess Monsoon Rains this year.
Excess subject to Systems movement.
Video Update https://youtu.be/uoAFQjGsQMU
