LPA to Churn in Bay Tomorrow...!!! Alert For Farmers in Srilanka Tamilnadu & Kerala ...!!!

 Alert For Farmers in Tamilnadu & Kerala ...!!!

Cyclonic Circulation Prevails off Indonesian Coast Near Equatorial waters will intensify in to Low Pressure Area in another 24/48 Hrs and it will move towards Srilanka. As WWB Support This System May get intensified a bit to WML/D.We can confirm as the system intensification & Rain Possibilities once the LPA takes a Shape in Bay. A detailed Explanation Given Below ->

Today 26.01.2023 Weather Inference - Image Credits Windy

Strong Western Disturbance Affecting Arab Pakistan & Afgansthan Very Badly with 
Severe Cold Conditions & Rains.It will impact J&K,Punjab Haryana Himachal PRadesh 
UP Delhi Chandigarh & Western Himalaya with Cold Conditions.Plains will get Intense 
Snow/Rains as well.

As Mentioned in our Last Week Post Our Main Hero MJO (Madden–Julian oscillation) is entered in our Bay of Bengal P2 and it will move towards P3  Meanwhile the MJO is behaving with Stronger Amplitude in Northern Indian ocean as we can see some circulation may trig near Indonesian coast as our Rainy Days will be back in Srilanka #Tamilnadu & #Kerala.Refer the Below Image About the MJO Progression and its Amptitude.

First Image Represents the Progression and Amptitude wise.Image Credits Dr.MJVentrice 

Image Courtesy - Dr.MJ Ventrice Webp

As the MJO KELVIN & ER Waves Seen at present in Bay of Bengal & Near Indonesian Coast As it Trigs Multiple Porticoes in Bay West Pacific & Southern Hemisphere.At present Ascending Limp of MJO is not Favourable over Bay which is not favouring Rains in Southern Peninsula.And We can say its an Climatology too.As ITCZ is in Southern Hemisphere too is the another Reason.

Image Courtesy - Dr.MJ Ventrice Webpage

Present Numeric Weather Models Track of upcoming Disturbance in Bay may be matching with this years and we need to wait and evaluate as the event nears.As of now There is no Conses in Numerical Models as the images are attached for your reference.

Credits IMD EAtlas- From 1891 to 2021 January System Tracks Which Formed i
In BOB as per Current Initial Conditions.

Image Credits - ECMF Ensemebles - Weathererds.org.Every Run able to see the changes and conses not yet seen.

GEFS - Some How the Ridge Position is not allowing the system to gain the LAtitude
and pushing down to arabian sea after crossing Srilankan landmass.Here we have seen 
some conses among the members in past runs.We can conclude once the LPA forms in 
bay in another 24 to 36 hours.

As The CC in Bay will Become LPA in another 24/48 Hrs which will move West/North Towards Srilanka. There is the Chances to Intensify in to WML/D Before reaching to Lankan Land.Will be know the Track in next 24/32 hrs as well.There is the Heavy/Very Heavy Rain Alert for #Srilanka. Heavy Rain Alert for Delta & South #Tamilnadu As well.North TN & Interiors need to wait for the further movement & WD interaction in real time to know the quantum of rainfall.As of now North TN coastal including #Chennai #KTCC may get Light / Isolated Moderate rains on 28/3rd February.Its my Initial Forecast and will update further once the System moves close to the land.

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