Weather Update: Widespread Moderate to Heavy Rain Expected Across Southern India Today (October 5, 2025)
Welcome to today's weather analysis, dated October 5, 2025. Please remember that this is a personal weather estimate, and for official forecasts and advisories, always follow the advice of the Indian Meteorological Department and governmental sources.
We have a dynamic situation developing across Southern India, leading to increased rainfall expectations over the next 24 hours.
Current Atmospheric Systems
Several factors are contributing to the instability and the potential for rain today:
1. Trough System: An interior trough structure ("ட்ராப்") is active, running from Interior Karnataka and Telangana all the way down to the Kanyakumari sea area.
2. Upper Air Circulation (Bay of Bengal): There is an upper air circulation currently prevailing over the Southwest Bay of Bengal at an altitude of 6400 feet.
3. Widespread Rain Trigger: Due to these systems and the resulting atmospheric uncertainty and wind direction variations, a condition known as "heat rain" (வெப்ப சரண மழை, often referring to thunderstorm activity) is expected to be widespread across many parts of Tamil Nadu today.
Regarding other significant systems, the deep depression that previously crossed near Odisha has weakened into an upper air circulation now positioned between Bihar and Nepal.
The Fate of Cyclone Shakti
The powerful system known as Cyclone Shakti has intensified into a severe cyclone in the Arabian Sea. While it is currently very close to the Oman coast, it is not expected to make landfall.
Why the near miss? A westerly disturbance is creating wind shear (காற்று முறிவு), which is weakening the system. Furthermore, another westerly disturbance is expected to move lower (more tip-deep) tonight and tomorrow. This combination will cause Cyclone Shakti to recurve (ரீக்கர்வ்) tonight or tomorrow, moving back towards the east-southeast direction and circulating within the central Arabian Sea. The cyclone is expected to lose strength entirely over the next two or three days due to lack of ridge support and the westerly influence, posing no major threat to land. The Oman coastal areas may see rain and strong winds for today only.
Rain Forecast for the Next 24 Hours
Widespread moderate to heavy rain and thundershowers are anticipated across Southern and Central India today.
Tamil Nadu (TN): Following good rain yesterday in the Southern districts, the conditions are expected to continue today.
• Moderate to Heavy Rain Expected: Many areas in Nagercoil, Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Tuticorin. Widespread parts of Virudhunagar, Theni (Kambam, Oddanchatram, Melur), Madurai, Dindigul, Sivaganga, and Ramanathapuram.
• Central TN: Moderate to heavy thundershowers are also expected across many parts of Karur, Tiruchirappalli, Ariyalur, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, and Karaikal.
• Western/Interior TN: Moderate to heavy rain is expected in Nilgiris, Erode, Salem, Namakkal, Dharmapuri, Krishnagiri, Tirupattur, Tiruvannamalai, Villupuram, and Puducherry.
• Chennai/Coastal TN: Western and Northern Chennai parts may see moderate rain. Other areas like Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, Ranipet, Vellore, Kallakurichi, Cuddalore, Mayiladuthurai, and Perambalur are likely to have cloudy evenings/nights with light rain in only a few spots, though overall rain chances remain low.
Andhra Pradesh (AP) & Telangana: A widespread thunderstorm day is forecast for both states.
• Andhra Pradesh (AP): Moderate to heavy rain is possible today across most regions, excluding Chittoor. This includes the North Coastal areas (Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, Rajahmundry, Kakinada, Konaseema) and interior regions like Vijayawada, Godavari districts, Prakasam, Tirupati, Kadapa, Nandyal, Kurnool, and Anantapur. Nellore and parts of Prakasam districts may see especially heavy rain.
• Telangana: Widespread moderate to heavy rain is anticipated. Specific areas prone to heavy rain include Vikarabad, Hyderabad, and Mancherial districts, with high potential for intense rain in the southern suburbs of Hyderabad.
Kerala & Karnataka: These states will also experience rainfall over the next 24 hours.
• Kerala: Moderate to heavy rain is expected in Kannur (western parts), Malappuram (western parts), Ernakulam, Idukki, Kottayam, Pathanamthitta, Kollam, and Thiruvananthapuram. Lighter rain is likely in districts like Alappuzha, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur, and Kasaragod.
• Karnataka: Heavy to moderate rain is expected for another day in Bengaluru and surrounding areas, Kolar, Bidar, Gulbarga, Yadgir, Raichur, Bellary, Koppal, Gadag, Bagalkot, and Bijapur. Light rain is expected in other districts.
Looking Ahead: The Transition Period
We are currently in a "transition period". Following the disappearance of the current tropical cyclone in the South China Sea, another deep depression is expected to form there and persist until October 12.
After October 12, significant changes are expected:
• October 13-14: Easterly winds will move from the South China Sea into the Bay of Bengal, fully crossing the sea areas. Simultaneously, an upper air circulation is expected to form near the areas bordering Sri Lanka around the 13th.
• Rain Shift: These easterly winds, pulled in by the circulation around October 15-16, are expected to bring rain into Tamil Nadu.
• Rain is forecasted to begin in Southern Tamil Nadu and Delta regions due to the easterly winds around October 13-14.
• The easterly wind-related rain will reach Northern Tamil Nadu around October 15-16.
Until then, Interior Tamil Nadu will continue to see potential for heavy to very heavy rain due to atmospheric uncertainty, frictional effects, and shifting wind directions.
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