Heavy Rain Alert: Weather Update for October 10, 2025 – Northeast Monsoon Onset Imminent!
October 10, 2025
Good morning! Welcome back to MAS Rainman Studio. This post provides our personal weather estimate for today, October 10, 2025. Please remember to follow the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and official government announcements for authoritative weather information.
Southwest Monsoon Withdrawal Nearing Completion
The weather across the sub-continent is undergoing a swift transition. The Southwest Monsoon going to be completely withdrawn from Central India within 24hrs. This includes regions such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar. The IMD has confirmed this withdrawal in recent press statements, and the monsoon is expected to withdraw fully over the next four to five days.
This clearance paves the way for the next major weather event: the Northeast Monsoon. Conditions conducive for the onset of the Northeast Monsoon are expected to form between October 16 and 18.
Current Weather System and Instability
The immediate rainfall over South India is driven by a persistent weather system. An Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation continues over the Comorin Sea area, stretching all the way to the Arabian Sea.
This circulation is causing significant wind direction variability (wind shear). This variability leads to atmospheric instability and uncertainty in wind flow, particularly affecting Central Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, and parts of Andhra Pradesh. This instability is the primary reason for the heavy rainfall recorded yesterday and the expected rainfall today.
Rain Forecast for the Next 24 Hours
Several regions are forecast to experience significant rainfall in the next 24 hours:
Karnataka: The Hotspot Karnataka is expected to be a major hotspot today. Heavy rainfall is anticipated in regions including:
- Bengaluru (similar to yesterday’s heavy rain), Kolar, Chikkaballapur, Ramanagara, Chamarajanagara, Chitradurga, Davangere, and Haveri.
- Heavy rain, and potentially severe rain, is also forecast for Bengaluru suburbs, Tumkur, Mandya, Mysuru, Hassan, Chikkamagaluru, Shivamogga, Uttara Kannada, Udupi, Dakshina Kannada, and Kodagu (the Cauvery catchment area).
Kerala Kerala will see widespread moderate to heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms. Heaviest rain is expected in Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Idukki (western parts), Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad (western parts), Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, and Kannur. Severe rain is possible in the Kasaragod district.
Andhra Pradesh Heavy rain and severe rain are expected in Kurnool, Nandyal, NTR, Eluru, Vijayawada, and Alluri Sitharama Raju districts. Moderate to widespread heavy rain is expected across Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, Anakapalle, Kakinada, Machilipatnam, Guntur, Prakasam, Palnadu, Anantapur, Kadapa, Satya Sai, Annamayya, Nellore, Kavali, Tirupati, and Chittoor.
Telangana The weather in Telangana is expected to be mostly dry, including Hyderabad. Only Kothagudem and Miryalaguda are likely to experience moderate rain.
Focus on Tamil Nadu & Coastal Areas
Widespread moderate to heavy rain is forecast across many parts of Tamil Nadu today.
Rainfall is likely in:
- Southern Districts: Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Tenkasi, Thoothukudi, Virudhunagar, Madurai, Theni, Dindigul, Pudukkottai, and Sivaganga.
- Western Districts: Nilgiris, Coimbatore, Erode, and Tiruppur.
- Northern Interior and Delta: Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Salem, Vellore, Tirupattur, Tiruvannamalai, Ranipet, Kanchipuram, Villupuram, Kallakurichi, Cuddalore, Ariyalur, Mayiladuthurai, Karaikal, Thiruvarur, Perambalur, Thanjavur, and Trichy.
Note on Coastal Rain: Coastal districts, including Chennai, Tiruvallur, Chengalpattu, Puducherry, and coastal areas of Cuddalore, Mayiladuthurai, Nagapattinam, and Ramanathapuram, are likely to receive only light or moderate rainfall. The current atmospheric setup involves sea breeze changes that push generated cloud clusters towards the interior districts, meaning the heaviest rain is concentrated inland.
This pattern is temporary. After the 14th, the commencement of easterly winds will fully set in, and coastal districts will begin to receive rain.
Stay Tuned for Seasonal Updates!
Don't forget to look out for our scheduled release later today (October 10, 2025)! We will be posting the 2025 Northeast Monsoon Preview.
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