Date: September 22, 2022
Good morning! This weather analysis provides an insightful look into the current and developing weather patterns across South and Central India. Please note that this is a personal weather estimation, and for official forecasts and information, one should follow the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and government announcements.
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Significant Low-Pressure System Forming in the Bay of Bengal
The main focus of the current weather analysis is an upper air circulation that is currently persisting in the North-West Bay of Bengal, having moved somewhat upwards from Myanmar.
Intensification and Path:
• It is predicted to intensify into a Low-Pressure Area (LPA) today (evening/night).
• Over the subsequent two days, this system is forecasted to strengthen significantly, developing into a Deep Depression (DD) and potentially a Severe Deep Depression.
• The intensification into a severe form is highly likely due to the highly supportive nature of the "Westerly burst," which refers to moisture-laden winds in the area.
• The system is expected to cross the coast around the 26th, passing between Bhubaneswar (Odisha district) and Visakhapatnam.
• Post-crossing, it will track inland, moving through Central Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat.
• Around the 28th, a Westerly disturbance is anticipated, which will help pull the system further, guiding its path from Gujarat towards Delhi.
Impact on Southwest Monsoon and Western Coast
The impending intensification of this system is critical as it will strengthen the Southwest Monsoon along the Western coastal regions. Furthermore, a second upper air circulation is expected to form in the North-West Bay of Bengal around the 28th, which will also contribute to strengthening the monsoon along the western coast.
This strengthening monsoon activity is expected to bring heavy rain across the Western coastal areas:
• Specific forecasts for the next 24 hours indicate heavy to very heavy rain in Kerala’s Kasaragod and Kannur districts. Moderate to heavy rain is widely expected in areas like Kozhikode, Wayanad, Malappuram, Thrissur, Palakkad, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Idukki, and the Western Ghats regions of Pathanamthitta and Kollam.
• Karnataka expects heavy rain, possibly very heavy rain, in Kodagu today, and heavy rain is also likely in Bidar and Gulbarga districts. Widespread moderate to heavy rain is forecasted for numerous other districts, including Bengaluru, Udupi, Uttara Kannada, and Goa.
Forecast for Central and South-Eastern States (Next 24 Hours)
Rainfall is expected to be widespread and intense across much of the Deccan region:
• Telangana is likely to experience widespread thunderstorms in many districts, including Hyderabad. Widespread heavy to very heavy rain is forecasted for the next four to five days.
• Andhra Pradesh has opportunities for heavy rain in the Central and Northern parts. Over the next 24 hours, moderate to heavy rain is expected widely in districts spanning from Visakhapatnam to Tirupati and Chittoor.
Focus on Tamil Nadu: Heat and Convectional Rain
As the Southwest Monsoon strengthens along the Western Coast, there is an expectation of a slight lag or setback ("தொய்வு") in the development of convectional (thermal) thunderstorms and associated heavy rainfall in Tamil Nadu.
Key Tamil Nadu Forecasts (Today):
1. Southern Districts: Most southern districts may experience increased heat. Light rain, or moderate rain at most, is expected in the evening or night under cloudy skies in districts including Nagercoil, Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, and Ramanathapuram.
2. Western Ghats and Interior West: Moderate rain, with heavy rain in some spots (similar to yesterday), is expected in the Nilgiris, Western and North-Western parts of Coimbatore, Erode, Valparai, Salem, and Namakkal districts.
3. Central and Delta Districts: Cloudy skies are expected, with possibilities of light or moderate rain in some areas of the Delta districts (e.g., Mayiladuthurai, Thanjavur, Thiruvarur) and neighboring districts (e.g., Tiruchy, Pudukottai). Similar conditions are expected in Northern Inland districts (e.g., Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri).
4. Chennai and Northern Coastal Areas: In districts like Vellore, Ranipet, Kanchipuram, Villupuram, Pondicherry, and Cuddalore, widespread light rain is expected in the evening/night, with chances for isolated pockets of moderate to heavy rain. For Chennai, while numerical models suggest widespread moderate to heavy rain, the expectation is for light to moderate rain, with moderate rain being possible if favorable conditions prevail.
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